Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99edf3235c96c007457e4a61a2daee51d0a6988045f11257558165322da1d42a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 1,842$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 55c | 1,650$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.5 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 45c | 1,465$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.75 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 38c | 1,064$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.8 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed Yes | 27c | 988.89$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 32c | 983.16$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.27 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…8955backed No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 462.89$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0f…325dbacked No | 74c | 351.35$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 245.03$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.61 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 6c | 238.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 36c | 221.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 28c | 209$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 38c | 196.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 33c | 189.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 176.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 51c | 173.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 130.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 11c | 125.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 124$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 55c | 114.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 51c | 110.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 109.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 27c | 107$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 106.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 74c | 92.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 68c | 87.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 76c | 83.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 68c | 83.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 41c | 78.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed No | 77c | 73.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…b304backed No | 23c | 70.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 68.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 68c | 66.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 27c | 65.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 73c | 22.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 79c | 21.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked No | 78c | 15.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 78c | 15.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 78c | 15.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-05?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.