Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a14fbf23cf4e691b4405620110c383acb4ad9957b99b940ffa04fdb7a93ba59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,856$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 76c | 1,317$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.14 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 2c | 647.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 79c | 365.13$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 244.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 195.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 68c | 181.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 29c | 168.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 154.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 65c | 131.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 128.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 31c | 122.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 26c | 109.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 52c | 105.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 85.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 49c | 77.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 59c | 77.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 37c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 70.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 60.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 58.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 79c | 57.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 54.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 50c | 54.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 60c | 50.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 50.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 21c | 46.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 42.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 52c | 41.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 53c | 38.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 49c | 37.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 37.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 62c | 33.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 30.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 28.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 59c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 75c | 21.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 52c | 20.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 57c | 18.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 76c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 79c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.