Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a29699680b71382fc193f7d75edc5a7e2bd280e539f3f3fd63dc0eae177361f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eintracht Frankfurtof Eintracht Frankfurt, FSV Mainz 05
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 52c | 1,650$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FSV Mainz 05 | 48c | 1,650$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked FSV Mainz 05 | 47c | 104.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 53c | 101.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked FSV Mainz 05 | 48c | 94.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…9a1abacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FSV Mainz 05 | 52c | 39.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 54c | 27.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed FSV Mainz 05 | 46c | 26.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.5)this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.