Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Democrats win between 50 and 54 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a615cbdd9d230739f633023c4ddcab6b38e37d9e7551f3d6297ee48f78eda2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 4c | 889.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 11c | 329.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 11c | 265.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 263.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 16c | 164.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Democrats win between 50 and 54 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?this page
- Will Democrats win 65 seats or more in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?No won
- Will Democrats win between 45 and 49 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?No won
- Will Democrats win between 55 and 59 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?No won
- Will Democrats win between 60 and 64 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.