Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Democrats win between 55 and 59 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d54c8e2964b93e549b3313f1e5218caf8fe1c9287f581ee8603f66e8e9ab5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 50c | 1,202$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 48c | 560$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.6 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 25c | 318$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 141.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 46c | 121.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 67c | 114.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfa…5704backed Yes | 51c | 109$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 100.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 39c | 83.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…c8fbbacked Yes | 32c | 65.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…0ec1backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 67c | 45.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1c…92adbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…9961backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Democrats win between 55 and 59 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?this page
- Will Democrats win 65 seats or more in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?No won
- Will Democrats win between 45 and 49 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?No won
- Will Democrats win between 50 and 54 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?No won
- Will Democrats win between 60 and 64 seats in the 2025 Virginia House of Delegates election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.