NHL · resolved market
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ac91616cd7199f617f54f3a068d8a99113db2b6f4fe44e43c9b69fcfdff6ff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Rangers, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc19a…0981backed Kraken | 65c | 998$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…eb0cbacked Kraken | 66c | 989$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…8208backed Kraken | 66c | 983$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…589cbacked Rangers | 35c | 936$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…133dbacked Rangers | 34c | 936$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…77dfbacked Rangers | 35c | 742$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…ece1backed Kraken | 65c | 680$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…8a5cbacked Rangers | 34c | 531$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rangers | 34c | 505$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Rangers | 48c | 164.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Kraken | 52c | 164.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rangers | 32c | 161.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…5d78backed Kraken | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Rangers | 31c | 95.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Kraken | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…ce40backed Kraken | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Rangers vs. KrakenRangers won
- Rangers vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.