Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b6446b96c1cdce00d8b811df65e96acd52c14684aeac082f82424b7dbee812b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 19c | 5,757$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 23c | 486.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…b824backed Yes | 6c | 470.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 221.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…b6aebacked Yes | 8c | 202.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…8132backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…3670backed Yes | 22c | 180.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 173.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…2b1ebacked Yes | 14c | 150.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will VfL Bochum vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.