Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09f9f9646d0d67768b45618657d7b61efccedf3d363f5432095d9acf791aaa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 57c | 8,000$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 43c | 7,846$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,472.22 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 35c | 4,499$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.63 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 58c | 4,498$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 42c | 4,212$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 56c | 3,962$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.45 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 2,675$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Yes | 62c | 2,389$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 44c | 888$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.72 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 45c | 807.28$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 55c | 550$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 56c | 540$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 502.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 43c | 499.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.99 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 56c | 331.46$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 37c | 325.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 54c | 297.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.96 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…8132backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Yes | 61c | 163.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 62c | 153.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…3670backed Yes | 57c | 141.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 45c | 116$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked No | 43c | 111$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 48c | 103.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 44c | 91.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed No | 45c | 91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 60c | 67.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 18c | 64.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed No | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Yes | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Yes | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…2b1ebacked Yes | 75c | 27.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…f0d2backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2025-12-20?No won
- Will VfL Bochum vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.