College Football · resolved market
Will Notre Dame beat Indiana by 7 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd9f6c754d2260560d25da88dd8fc7cc6df555dcde1d7e259ffc2e7c0bcd9fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed Indiana | 49c | 17,265$8,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,496.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Notre Dame | 52c | 12,521$6,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,029.66 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Notre Dame | 50c | 4,653$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.77 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Indiana | 56c | 799.43$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.68 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed Indiana | 49c | 799.42$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Notre Dame | 44c | 699.43$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.68 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Notre Dame | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Notre Dame | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…dc5cbacked Notre Dame | 54c | 187$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked Indiana | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Notre Dame | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Notre Dame | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…0a5cbacked Indiana | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed Indiana | 49c | 77.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…a4e2backed Indiana | 47c | 40.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1c…b61bbacked Indiana | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Notre Dame beat Indiana by 7 or more points?this page
- Will Notre Dame and Indiana combine for 51 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.