MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ceab62afb63dc17f87a899338b74828b0033413498a868f530b0bbb2e7bca46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Seattle Mariners | 16c | 4,054$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.6 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 2,498$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.72 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Seattle Mariners | 13c | 1,227$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 1,000$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…e019backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 487.04$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Seattle Mariners | 14c | 457.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 432.7$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 406.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.92 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 400.38$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 149.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 98.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 73.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 72.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 63.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 53.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 25.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eff…531fbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.