Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9de8f33c6b825e860a8d3da316628a494ea62ccaea63567f925407724d859e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xece8…8b68backed No | 1c | 2,622$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…e8aebacked No | 1c | 1,187$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 953.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 880.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 432.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 73c | 406.81$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 76c | 386.03$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 19c | 237.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 200.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 174.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 15c | 165.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 150.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked Yes | 32c | 127.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 15c | 117.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 14c | 104.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 79c | 78.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 72.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 80c | 62.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 58.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 57.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 42c | 46.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 41.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 71c | 38.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 72c | 25.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…0da8backed Yes | 80c | 24.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.