NFL · resolved market
Will the New Orleans Saints draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df9df9532987134dee0f60a6dbdd362cda7936400012e0db9f283f07b4e008d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbea5…9944backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4632…e209backed Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a32…6b21backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…f844backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…a927backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…439dbacked No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…65b8backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…cee9backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…ea56backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…da57backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40d…63c8backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…302bbacked No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…ee4dbacked No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…04edbacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New Orleans Saints draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will the Miami Dolphins draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the New York Jets draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Tennessee Titans draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.