Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e16585d20d4de6ad4cc1aaab30571d987bb85d1f2bca571a1326646565fb926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 20c | 10,536$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 20c | 4,464$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 2,222$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.4 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 19c | 1,800$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,029$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.53 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 753.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 19c | 609.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.35 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 529.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…792abacked Yes | 18c | 487.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 19c | 430.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 19c | 291.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 12c | 219.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 9c | 205.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…92efbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 149.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 12c | 115.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 105.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 18c | 86.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 17c | 84.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 80c | 74.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 19c | 74.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 19c | 74.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 80c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.