Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e46df256ee207ae7706ca191667a7d28a5c695ab19f3294ebebd5e49eaa417c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 425.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.39 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…7e9abacked Yes | 26c | 337.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 320.42$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 194.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 67c | 184.02$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 129.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 60c | 116.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 106.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 58c | 79.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 73.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 21c | 72.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…6aa2backed Yes | 56c | 71.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 66.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 65.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 58.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 56.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 69c | 46.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 46.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 45.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 43.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 72.5%100 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 27c | 37.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 65c | 30.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 28.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 26.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 78c | 24.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…12f4backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 70c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 16.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 76c | 15.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.