Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Dartmouth Big Green
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e65e3cdfb637911bca7cf77fb04cc09564c6c98585f5d7689f3bc2d9d433f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Appalachian State Mountaineersof Appalachian State Mountaineers, Dartmouth Big Green
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dartmouth Big Green | 48c | 164.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Dartmouth Big Green | 46c | 83.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…8e68backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…887fbacked Dartmouth Big Green | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dartmouth Big Green | 46c | 29.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…a7d1backed Dartmouth Big Green | 49c | 27.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…baa2backed Dartmouth Big Green | 50c | 25.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…d825backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 24.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…c53fbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 24.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…7824backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…1d32backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 19.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc656…aedebacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 19.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 54c | 18.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Dartmouth Big Greenthis page
- Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Dartmouth Big Green: O/U 140.5Over won
- Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Dartmouth Big Green: O/U 141.5Over won
- Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Dartmouth Big Green: O/U 142.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.