CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e71154effd89b2cf4e546b97e7d442fb0a8bbc4b9b0dc3cbd8aaa7f5b9947f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, MASONIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MASONIC | 6c | 1,532$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MASONIC | 25c | 842.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked illwill | 79c | 292.03$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed MASONIC | 23c | 165.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked MASONIC | 25c | 132.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed MASONIC | 19c | 129.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed illwill | 75c | 126.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 78c | 102.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed illwill | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 71c | 68.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked illwill | 77c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed illwill | 78c | 37.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MASONIC | 33c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked illwill | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked illwill | 73c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed illwill | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 404 | 57.2%231 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.