Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9effb8d11bfc81b60ffac5fc39b3a235b6b7231d5bc88000c2211417ee18ca3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 9c | 3,584$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.06 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 1c | 2,073$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 12c | 468.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 49c | 450.55$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.77 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes | 51c | 382.53$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 5c | 370.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 189 | 61.9%117 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 7c | 345.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 49c | 231.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…ef5ebacked Yes | 53c | 183.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 24c | 133.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…d11dbacked Yes | 52c | 93.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 50c | 77.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…5c5ebacked Yes | 51c | 75.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 51c | 73.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…4ff3backed Yes | 51c | 61.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 48c | 53.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…19bdbacked Yes | 52c | 48.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…6753backed Yes | 51c | 34.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed No | 50c | 23.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Yes | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Draw at halftime?No won
- Newcastle United FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.