Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9faf9480cd4a836fc08bbfa52c6a5f3eebd7facd4f459a3702341c967cba6c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 5,677$2,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.88 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 13c | 4,588$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.42 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,405$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.39 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.31 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…cb8abacked No | 72c | 1,299$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 78c | 1,070$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 24c | 717.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 8c | 483.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 44c | 482.31$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.6 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 64c | 249.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 165.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 42c | 164.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 72c | 153.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…a2ccbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 29c | 119.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.83 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…2335backed Yes | 62c | 106.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 28c | 101.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed Yes | 29c | 45.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 71c | 45.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…3057backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 42c | 27.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf98…ca38backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 14.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-11-23?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.