Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fbe06ab15563e9f3b03b19de72c7ad4dec81976c74dfa5c68328d5bc092f999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Satan666, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Satan666 | 19c | 164.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Satan666 | 18c | 153$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Satan666 | 12c | 135.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Satan666 | 20c | 126.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Satan666 | 26c | 119.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Satan666 | 15c | 118.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Satan666 | 17c | 93.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Carstensz | 74c | 81.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Carstensz | 79c | 55.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Satan666 | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…7b60backed Carstensz | 74c | 39.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Carstensz | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.