Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc323e527de52476f2d39d776e1c0b46573274bf4cf086198eb0fbc565dc65714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Satan666, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Satan666 | 58c | 1,267$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.71 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Carstensz | 22c | 949.76$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.02 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Satan666 | 76c | 742.38$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.28 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Satan666 | 62c | 591.96$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.63 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Satan666 | 21c | 315.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Carstensz | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Satan666 | 65c | 176.1$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Satan666 | 41c | 174$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe996…3836backed Carstensz | 67c | 166.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Carstensz | 29c | 139.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Carstensz | 53c | 137.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Carstensz | 48c | 125.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Carstensz | 51c | 116.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…0022backed Carstensz | 65c | 113.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Satan666 | 55c | 105.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Carstensz | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 40c | 87.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…1047backed Satan666 | 73c | 87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Carstensz | 48c | 82.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…a342backed Carstensz | 63c | 79.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Carstensz | 70c | 63.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Satan666 | 27c | 61.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Satan666 | 57c | 53.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Carstensz | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 180 | 42.8%77 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2295…8f0fbacked Satan666 | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Carstensz | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 52c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Carstensz | 62c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.