Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0caaef79e8fb1f4ecb04f57ddfe80f862648b900d1dfa717dd5d20ec0de5dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,326 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8609…4897backed Over | 34c | 779.37$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…a734backed Under | 66c | 242.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…9278backed Under | 66c | 234.36$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Under | 66c | 160.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…676ebacked Under | 66c | 142.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 92.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 61c | 86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 85.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 60c | 77.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Over | 40c | 68.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 60c | 65.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Over | 40c | 65.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.