Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Girona?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0d1d715104e47963f0cdb51ce54d04f8cd31ac293176893b5f50bd55f46b9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 34c | 7,289$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.96 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 78c | 3,062$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.85 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 60c | 3,034$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.5 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 61c | 1,784$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.91 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 38c | 1,520$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.7 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 40c | 1,411$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Yes | 63c | 1,060$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fb2bbacked Yes | 64c | 955.02$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 61c | 750$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 59c | 625$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 61c | 499.91$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.97 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…f360backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 38c | 395$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 78c | 355.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 38c | 250.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 37c | 202.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 46c | 168.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…9830backed Yes | 63c | 142.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Yes | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 73c | 109.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…6d30backed Yes | 62c | 80.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…207ebacked Yes | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdac…a6fdbacked Yes | 62c | 49.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…5b97backed No | 38c | 34.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6759…7afdbacked Yes | 62c | 34.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…5ec7backed No | 38c | 33.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…278dbacked Yes | 62c | 33.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…b85dbacked No | 38c | 33.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46d…e19ebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…269abacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…f2e7backed Yes | 64c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4949…0b0ebacked No | 38c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…3aa5backed Yes | 62c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1732…e828backed No | 38c | 27.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…255abacked No | 39c | 25.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…fb52backed Yes | 62c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2556…cc02backed Yes | 61c | 25.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…3e49backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227a…9c4abacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…665abacked Yes | 62c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…8dd9backed Yes | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be3…ef3fbacked Yes | 62c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Girona?this page
- Will Girona beat Arsenal?No won
- Will the match between Girona and Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.