Other European Leagues · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16d90a9cc70bb9774a97bd66b49489ffc478ae4607b6e496d840313490c7982
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 2,045$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.35 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Over | 28c | 1,200$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 19c | 1,163$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.04 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 1,147$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.97 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 27c | 1,062$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 17c | 838.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 617.06$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.18 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 32c | 333$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 314.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 270.47$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 54c | 145.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 125.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 17c | 90.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 54c | 80.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Under | 66c | 72.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 62.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 53c | 49.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 53c | 47.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 78c | 33.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 53c | 20.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Midtjylland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.