Token Launches · resolved market
Will Portnoy launch $greed3 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f0c06aa01e60b9d23f074907b8ff366f3658b0e28a3f3761b611526add8452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 4,375$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…fbb3backed Yes | 11c | 1,215$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…ea13backed No | 53c | 231$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…c553backed Yes | 47c | 207$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…1836backed Yes | 47c | 161$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…f377backed No | 53c | 137$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…ede2backed No | 21c | 109$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +383.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…cab7backed Yes | 79c | 93.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…bf2dbacked Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f0…5035backed No | 18c | 88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…00c0backed Yes | 21c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…7cb0backed Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c8…bed7backed No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 23c | 44.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…96b6backed No | 77c | 43.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2a…5f75backed Yes | 79c | 36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…25f8backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ce…f150backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…506bbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5997…2072backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…4fcdbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…3e34backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…2da7backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…1015backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…7866backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…1da4backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…2b21backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…e031backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…5909backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…b78abacked No | 74c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.