CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f75f8f7a6fe322f0a6ddc22f1bbb28a12c1529b62050a410ed4e56ab95d98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof Lilmix, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f27…4fb3backed G2 Ares | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed Lilmix | 42c | 923.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.26 | 388 | 35.6%138 W · 250 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Lilmix | 50c | 888.32$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.16 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 46c | 677.72$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.85 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed G2 Ares | 54c | 517$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.82 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed G2 Ares | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked G2 Ares | 41c | 417.94$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.33 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | -18.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Lilmix | 50c | 402.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked Lilmix | 54c | 361.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Lilmix | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Lilmix | 60c | 210$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed G2 Ares | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Lilmix | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…8382backed Lilmix | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked G2 Ares | 47c | 188.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked G2 Ares | 57c | 186.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lilmix | 55c | 179.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…4df8backed G2 Ares | 53c | 177.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 183 | 56.3%103 W · 80 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed G2 Ares | 44c | 148.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed G2 Ares | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Lilmix | 64c | 119.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked G2 Ares | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 217 | 41%89 W · 128 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed G2 Ares | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Lilmix | 20c | 85.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed G2 Ares | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked G2 Ares | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed G2 Ares | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed G2 Ares | 49c | 39.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed G2 Ares | 51c | 28.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99a…a350backed Lilmix | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group AG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs G2 Ares - Map 1 WinnerLilmix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.