Australian A League · resolved market
Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa20b70cb9cc6d65f180b8c84b3dae0a4348189e3a83546d3cffa6fca912e4f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,511$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 1,089$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.83 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…efaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,088$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 1,030$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 23c | 900.25$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 712.3$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 631.46$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 441.04$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 25c | 401.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 25c | 313.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 17c | 267$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 21c | 247$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 164.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 77c | 160.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 102.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…30e3backed Yes | 17c | 87.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 21c | 73.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 20c | 60.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…6bb5backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…79b7backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…f223backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…05f2backed Yes | 25c | 40.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-02-06?Yes won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-02-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.