Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces military action against Iran durring SOTU?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22046040140c26f0b6f94736e4edd43856d49125f866427d00abad163cc4f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 1c | 55,712$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.77 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…8d40backed Yes | 0c | 11,589$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…9684backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…17c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,890$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…1867backed Yes | 4c | 2,550$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…107fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4c…f88fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…7567backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…30f4backed Yes | 4c | 845.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 4c | 814.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 2c | 715.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496a…9d47backed Yes | 4c | 709.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…b51ebacked Yes | 4c | 591.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…24e7backed Yes | 3c | 572.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…09a4backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…40acbacked Yes | 5c | 504.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9029…8456backed Yes | 2c | 438.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 6c | 339.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…757fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…191ebacked Yes | 5c | 242.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa67…1457backed Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.