Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California Baptist vs. UT Arlington
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa258709d1ab12a1bbe6e4ae50c2a4edf6fddeda0642c41e47f9f0712bc581e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UT Arlingtonof California Baptist, UT Arlington
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02fb…8cf1backed California Baptist | 0c | 6,102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked California Baptist | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed UT Arlington | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked California Baptist | 53c | 373.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…a15abacked UT Arlington | 43c | 285.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…b442backed UT Arlington | 49c | 230$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…ad65backed California Baptist | 51c | 225$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed UT Arlington | 13c | 222.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.91 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed California Baptist | 55c | 181.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked California Baptist | 55c | 110.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f69…e82bbacked UT Arlington | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed California Baptist | 50c | 58.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…98f5backed UT Arlington | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked California Baptist | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed UT Arlington | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…4276backed California Baptist | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…8c80backed California Baptist | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…fed5backed California Baptist | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…9645backed California Baptist | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…cbefbacked UT Arlington | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…7264backed California Baptist | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed UT Arlington | 42c | 26.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed California Baptist | 75c | 26.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked California Baptist | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c69…c547backed UT Arlington | 49c | 24.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…e56bbacked UT Arlington | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.