Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a5eca969611945d52e458c223165c55b649d53e511f5e940358ee2180f3871

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cal State Fullerton Titansof Oklahoma State Cowboys, Cal State Fullerton Titans
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans	51c	517.72$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.04	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	200	46.5%93 W · 107 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x363a…b79ebacked Cal State Fullerton Titans	52c	146$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.08	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-5.1wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans	52c	132$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.36	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Cal State Fullerton Titans	52c	128$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.44	918	48.9%449 W · 469 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans	50c	117$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.5	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Cal State Fullerton Titans	53c	107$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.29	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	96$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.08	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Cal State Fullerton Titans	49c	71$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	50c	58$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Cal State Fullerton Titans	52c	51$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75f1…907dbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Cal State Fullerton Titans	49c	47$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.97	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	47c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72df…42f6backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	50c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b5…694ebacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	47c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fec…8dc3backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	47c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfa9…7097backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb990…3d1cbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	50c	25.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	115	36.5%42 W · 73 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddf6…9bd5backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad2…d17fbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Oklahoma State Cowboys	51c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38a6…bbd5backed Oklahoma State Cowboys	48c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20.5)this page
Cal State Fullerton Titans vs. Oklahoma State CowboysOklahoma State Cowboys won
Cal State Fullerton Titans vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys: O/U 176.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-20.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event