Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2aa9f7f8c0e1b2a038b0a95f4ac39a3e2255acbeab7c5d5cc32974a19934f06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 215.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 206.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 181.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 21c | 172.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 115.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 68c | 92.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 88.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 86.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 82.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 77.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 75.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 74.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 29c | 72.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 71.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 70.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 54c | 69.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 62.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 57.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 50.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 31c | 42.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 78c | 40.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 39.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 72c | 37.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 34.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 24.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 24.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 72c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…f8bdbacked No | 73c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.