AI · resolved market
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b6ad517da7fc0623f43e5ca23ff2d67eb339e70a9e9be56b97b32d36562420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 31c | 425.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 301.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 14c | 271.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…0cf5backed Yes | 14c | 187.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…ecbebacked Yes | 70c | 157.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…c1e4backed Yes | 69c | 157.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…2e52backed Yes | 69c | 152.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 55.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…7aedbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…39c6backed No | 74c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?this page
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $21B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.