AI · resolved market
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4247ad6c6fec0d7a699833b1716e30f9e018da01a204fd850ea32ed92a1a2df8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 59c | 250$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 75c | 160.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 149$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…86f4backed Yes | 72c | 112.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 66c | 95.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 76c | 80.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 43c | 23.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…3f0cbacked No | 59c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?this page
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $21B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30?No won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.