NFL · resolved market
Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs by 6 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2dcaf870c69d6d47bac1228eafb0a613e37439f51c8063bb5d83b264f3072d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Eagles, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Chiefs | 66c | 708.66$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.72 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed Eagles | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Eagles | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Eagles | 34c | 142.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Eagles | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…7694backed Chiefs | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…9397backed Eagles | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…9976backed Chiefs | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada9…2307backed Eagles | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…dba6backed Chiefs | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…81babacked Eagles | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…5581backed Eagles | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…f714backed Chiefs | 50c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…00f1backed Eagles | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…2ca2backed Chiefs | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…9864backed Eagles | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs by 6 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles by 8 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Eagles won
- Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs by 9 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.