NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles by 8 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6692c0bd79d526fb3da31a6d7f87380f21f0f98a13bc54ca5ca510785c1a02d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Chiefs, Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f5…4850backed Eagles | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Chiefs | 20c | 156.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…4a97backed Eagles | 76c | 149$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9c…8862backed Chiefs | 24c | 149$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…666cbacked Chiefs | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…8689backed Eagles | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…6b60backed Eagles | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a2…6c31backed Chiefs | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…2c98backed Chiefs | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7127…8b72backed Eagles | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…1263backed Eagles | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…8ddabacked Chiefs | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…fcc2backed Eagles | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…d3afbacked Eagles | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…c060backed Eagles | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…8ccfbacked Eagles | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles by 8 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs by 6 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Eagles won
- Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs by 9 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.