Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa315fe68b472ffbacdeac4546c60e87923b0bb2ec0432b4ba4a45dc2f9a7767d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Hoosiersof Penn State Nittany Lions, Indiana Hoosiers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 5,274$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.66 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 1,713$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 841.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 800$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 8c | 650.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 372$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 9c | 202.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…324dbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 12c | 108.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.