NFL · resolved market
Will Patrick Mahomes record 253 or more passing yards in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34809d96b6498ad1b505030b6ecbc0f4c264fd74c36ffd647e4c7a6ad3ebf40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Under | 53c | 1,699$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.47 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Over | 47c | 1,632$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.76 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…effabacked Under | 53c | 219.42$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e6…bc81backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Under | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…f1f5backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Patrick Mahomes record 253 or more passing yards in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Jalen Hurts record 211 or more passing yards in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will Patrick Mahomes record 2 or more Passing TDs in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will Patrick Mahomes record 25 or more completions in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will Patrick Mahomes throw an interception in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.