MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool B: Brazil vs. USA
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa35ebf686cf209135b5df662fd1d6d14e56b210337085570915d6b1529f0d09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof Brazil, USA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,845 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Brazil | 0c | 21,012$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 224 | 2.7%6 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…c626backed Brazil | 2c | 4,544$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Brazil | 1c | 2,770$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Brazil | 1c | 2,251$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Brazil | 2c | 2,148$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Brazil | 2c | 1,727$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Brazil | 2c | 1,636$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Brazil | 2c | 1,537$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Brazil | 3c | 1,340$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Brazil | 1c | 1,294$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Brazil | 2c | 948.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Brazil | 2c | 726.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…e728backed Brazil | 2c | 684.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Brazil | 2c | 664.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Brazil | 2c | 587.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Brazil | 2c | 512.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.