Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36a571d552c250c84bd4c39989f19c93ab303e8a8958b50a7e298885792bfd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof SaD Esports, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x835d…b4d3backed SaD Esports | 46c | 222.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked SaD Esports | 45c | 220.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…59eabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 218.37$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed SaD Esports | 45c | 184$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 164.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 102.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 97.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 92.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked SaD Esports | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 62.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed SaD Esports | 46c | 43.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…67b1backed SaD Esports | 42c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…d36fbacked SaD Esports | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 PlayoffsShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.