Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed64e6e6ed6c2017cedf1775fb50f04c18d4267f362af48441d3ab9a91d900b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof SaD Esports, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 7,053$4,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.45 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…efd0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 6,718$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.78 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed SaD Esports | 30c | 2,915$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed SaD Esports | 28c | 2,592$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.83 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…2a58backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 2,145$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.5 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787f…d40cbacked SaD Esports | 31c | 1,586$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.22 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…5709backed SaD Esports | 20c | 1,365$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 322 | 45.7%147 W · 175 L | +52.2wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 1,171$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…61fdbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 962$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…bd73backed SaD Esports | 30c | 900$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed SaD Esports | 30c | 790$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed SaD Esports | 13c | 764.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked SaD Esports | 29c | 577.59$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 550$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed SaD Esports | 30c | 534.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed SaD Esports | 33c | 528.21$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed SaD Esports | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 460.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…4d93backed SaD Esports | 33c | 416.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…9795backed SaD Esports | 30c | 353$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed SaD Esports | 30c | 307.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…93edbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 306.15$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed SaD Esports | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked SaD Esports | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…59eabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…417abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 78c | 275.78$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2267…3355backed SaD Esports | 37c | 255.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 214.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SaD Esports | 31c | 205.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 344 | 43.3%149 W · 195 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed SaD Esports | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…8f47backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 133.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SaD Esports | 20c | 86.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed SaD Esports | 30c | 80.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed SaD Esports | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 70.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa683…6692backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed SaD Esports | 30c | 64.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked SaD Esports | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed SaD Esports | 44c | 54.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…6da1backed SaD Esports | 24c | 53.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed SaD Esports | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…0439backed SaD Esports | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked SaD Esports | 30c | 46.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 42.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 68c | 41.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…1fd2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked SaD Esports | 32c | 36.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…5c85backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 34.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…fd26backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4c26backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…e8babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…2cf6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 64c | 16.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffsthis page
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: SaD Esports vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.