MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3acf0ca12aceab77a1c402621f1448198053934a56db0d8949f44e6bd9247d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 5,299$3,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.67 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 4,101$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 2,304$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.24 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 1,666$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.78 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 1,085$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Detroit Tigers | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 382.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 381.83$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 287.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 270.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 71.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…37e0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Detroit Tigers | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 40.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.