College Football · resolved market
Spread: Kansas (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c18b72efb6290f2afd25e3ad57541d2b60c5257418eb6e027547d904f5f34e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Stateof Kansas, Kansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cc0…d2d0backed Kansas State | 52c | 80,000$41,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,400 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…effabacked Kansas | 48c | 31,463$15,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,102.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Kansas State | 52c | 27,460$14,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,180.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70aa…15f8backed Kansas | 48c | 25,263$12,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,126.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…1941backed Kansas | 48c | 24,639$11,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,826.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kansas State | 51c | 9,685$4,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,748.78 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…c988backed Kansas | 48c | 6,918$3,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…92afbacked Kansas | 48c | 6,820$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kansas | 48c | 6,116$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.57 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…1bd5backed Kansas | 48c | 4,039$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…0931backed Kansas | 48c | 2,796$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…3141backed Kansas | 48c | 2,265$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas | 49c | 1,839$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.66 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Kansas | 48c | 1,431$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.41 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…82c9backed Kansas | 48c | 1,087$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c40…9c3abacked Kansas | 48c | 885$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…42e1backed Kansas | 48c | 827$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Kansas State | 52c | 822$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.56 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas | 47c | 769$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.43 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Kansas | 49c | 490.61$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c2…40d5backed Kansas | 48c | 458$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Kansas State | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Kansas State | 56c | 225$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Kansas | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kansas | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Kansas State | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed Kansas State | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…a2e2backed Kansas State | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Kansas State | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Kansas State | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Kansas State | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…de3abacked Kansas | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Kansas | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…698bbacked Kansas | 49c | 20.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas (-3.5)this page
- Kansas State vs. KansasKansas State won
- O/U 56.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas (-2.5)Kansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.