Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional vs. FC Porto end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46c3058fb99e80b578e2b7824ddaecf5c86e6ac38b22bf99793bb67741a9e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 32c | 2,038$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 1,229$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.08 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 23c | 728.06$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 666.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 19c | 523.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 19c | 462.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 11c | 237.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 16c | 228.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…90f4backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 18c | 148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Yes | 33c | 146.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 68.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 67.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed Yes | 21c | 55.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 79c | 39.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 71c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 79c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 13.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional vs. FC Porto end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-02-15?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.