Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Destanee Aiava vs Harriet Dart
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c82b40c9e170645ea47033c35467c49261917d086a4912d93d1f655f3439f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dartof Aiava, Dart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Dart | 62c | 7,137$4,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.78 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Dart | 70c | 3,350$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.63 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aiava | 45c | 1,500$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.65 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Dart | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Dart | 55c | 700$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Aiava | 38c | 675.75$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.79 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dart | 50c | 350.5$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Aiava | 24c | 316.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Dart | 61c | 303.55$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Aiava | 77c | 241.63$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Dart | 52c | 204$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Dart | 58c | 157$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Dart | 35c | 146.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Aiava | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Dart | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Dart | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Aiava | 57c | 77.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Aiava | 41c | 61.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Aiava | 38c | 53.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aiava | 49c | 50.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…99f6backed Dart | 72c | 49.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Aiava | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Aiava | 38c | 44.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Aiava | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Dart | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Aiava | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Aiava | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…243dbacked Aiava | 47c | 24.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…68edbacked Dart | 51c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Dart | 72c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Destanee Aiava vs Harriet Dartthis page
- Aiava vs. Dart: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Aiava vs. Dart: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Aiava vs. Dart: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Aiava vs DartDart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.