MLB · resolved market
Will Altrincham FC win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fc3fd5a8c0a5719932c631297fb39c4c8c74c161ffc949610c4a404ca2f6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 48c | 17,885$8,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,341.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 52c | 7,766$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,005.76 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…a7a8backed No | 51c | 2,815$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No | 53c | 2,203$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 55c | 973$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 51c | 475.77$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.64 | 208 | 48.1%100 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 48c | 472.29$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d5…7767backed No | 51c | 431.46$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 58c | 348.55$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 51c | 255.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 51c | 252.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 51c | 245.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 51c | 237.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 69c | 221.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed No | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 51c | 151.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 80c | 147.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 51c | 110.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 61c | 101.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…af5ebacked No | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed Yes | 53c | 73.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 58c | 62.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 58c | 50.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 51c | 40.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 51c | 35.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 51c | 35.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 58c | 33.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 52c | 31.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 58c | 29.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 41c | 25.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Altrincham FC win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Gateshead FC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.