Olympics · resolved market
Will Faith Kipyegon (KEN) win gold in 5000m W?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50e45cb50e6eb95bb60dbed25ae5d069ccd0bac9b5e0ee50a2214467d61a10b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f8…b504backed Yes | 79c | 2,042$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed No | 25c | 1,591$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 78c | 1,277$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 21c | 273.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 75c | 227.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 25c | 110$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…d760backed Yes | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…2d38backed Yes | 78c | 69.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…1509backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…191dbacked Yes | 78c | 50.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…daf0backed Yes | 78c | 34.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…c8f8backed Yes | 76c | 28.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Faith Kipyegon (KEN) win gold in 5000m W?this page
- Will Beatrice Chebet (KEN) win gold in 5000m W?Yes won
- Will Gudaf Tsegay (ETH) win gold in 5000m W?No won
- Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in 5000m W?No won
- Will any other athlete win gold in 5000m W?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.