Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5181a6c3d6922e0a861e589944f2b3c38429cd65f11aa8800141aa67a0a78dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d88…a0edbacked Yes | 7c | 301.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…e952backed Yes | 27c | 77.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 37c | 68.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…adf5backed Yes | 46c | 66.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 44c | 62.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 43c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 53.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 52.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 38c | 45.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…5121backed No | 57c | 44.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 68c | 39.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 34c | 34.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 51c | 33.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…48fabacked Yes | 37c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…5ac2backed Yes | 43c | 23.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.