Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa52c82dca887d2c875ba3ad43367875f6352b52735d61dab5d71c42a6cc7e595
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,919,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,919,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9e1…6d4dbacked Yes | 0c | 124,270$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…3d55backed Yes | 0c | 116,930$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…17adbacked Yes | 0c | 114,850$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…979cbacked Yes | 0c | 114,130$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…3563backed Yes | 0c | 108,640$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…c2f6backed Yes | 0c | 106,480$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…e7a0backed Yes | 0c | 97,780$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c9…ca6cbacked Yes | 0c | 93,840$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…1d89backed Yes | 0c | 85,960$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…a6f9backed Yes | 0c | 84,040$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…7499backed Yes | 0c | 83,460$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…cc10backed Yes | 0c | 82,250$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…8b50backed Yes | 0c | 81,470$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…0f50backed Yes | 0c | 78,580$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e22…5badbacked Yes | 0c | 67,520$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…5573backed Yes | 0c | 63,760$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da7…5cd8backed Yes | 0c | 59,300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…7e97backed Yes | 0c | 54,810$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1397…f763backed Yes | 0c | 51,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…0236backed Yes | 0c | 44,890$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd45…47e0backed Yes | 0c | 40,790$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…63fbbacked Yes | 0c | 37,570$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…538bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.