Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28b1e8a19c4f01953bae27fab90380c1f9d8c55c8ad5825384e899e3d6323217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 553.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 47c | 417.22$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.57 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…ff3fbacked No | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 27c | 390.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 17c | 287.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…3e37backed No | 28c | 245$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…4f73backed No | 28c | 245$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…02efbacked No | 28c | 210$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 8c | 199.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 50c | 179.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…77b2backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…b3f8backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…e5edbacked Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…1c14backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…2799backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 21c | 91.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…0601backed Yes | 33c | 80.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 31c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 76.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 52c | 67.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7a…9c0dbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc89…99b6backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…d4adbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd42…cf1ebacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…b768backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…4f75backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.