MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56ee875e38eee625b7d8be1febcabb6bef4315ff91f7ff2837cae7dff361677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,716 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked New York Mets | 56c | 5,241$2,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.93 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Houston Astros | 44c | 2,999$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.56 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Houston Astros | 43c | 1,566$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.59 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed New York Mets | 58c | 1,508$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.63 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Houston Astros | 43c | 698$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Mets | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Houston Astros | 46c | 304.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 55c | 238.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Houston Astros | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 208$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Houston Astros | 40c | 178$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 172.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 164.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Houston Astros | 44c | 149.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 146$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 108.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed New York Mets | 61c | 98.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…029dbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 88.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 54c | 69.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 65.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Houston Astros | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…403bbacked Houston Astros | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed New York Mets | 72c | 40.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Houston Astros | 32c | 32.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Houston Astros | 43c | 30.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed New York Mets | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked New York Mets | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.