Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a87d407a932fd5ee47c90ca88b115841876d880d13eb77765e97a1adbaf570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Rune Eaters, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Rune Eaters | 31c | 614.63$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.74 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rune Eaters | 46c | 592.31$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.09 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed MODUS | 45c | 428.53$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed MODUS | 50c | 232.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed MODUS | 44c | 219.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc0…9d48backed MODUS | 79c | 161.28$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked MODUS | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Rune Eaters | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 92.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Rune Eaters | 22c | 78.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS | 44c | 67.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed MODUS | 80c | 58.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked MODUS | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…e5c2backed MODUS | 78c | 47.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed MODUS | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 32c | 35.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…08fbbacked MODUS | 69c | 29.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed MODUS | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed MODUS | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed MODUS | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS | 73c | 24.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed MODUS | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 78c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ARune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.